Kenya’s cement demand expected to continue growing until 2028

• Cement demand in Kenya is forecast to increase at an annual average rate of almost 6 percent
• Clinker imports are expected to decline with an increase in local capacity
• Kenyan cement exports are expected to grow as a result of increased capacity

Greenwich (CT), USA, March 7, 2023 – Cement demand in Kenya is forecast to increase at an annual average rate of almost 6 percent, reaching nearly 14 million tons by 2028, supported by sustained infrastructure investment, according to the 2023 update of the Kenya Cement Market Report.

"As the government continues to focus on the critical infrastructure sector, new capacities for cement grinding and clinker production from existing players are expected to contribute to a declining cement market price helping boost private sector consumption. With enhanced capacities, cement producers are expected to continue their export focus to cater to growing demand from neighboring markets", assesses Tiago Sá, Junior Business Analyst at CW Group.

Kenya's cement demand is anticipated to rise in 2023

The Kenyan cement market consists of fewer than ten cement manufacturers including National cement, Bamburi Cement and Mombasa Cement. With a strong pipeline of infrastructure projects that are to be implemented and completed over the forecast period, cement demand is expected to see steady growth at a CAGR of around 6 percent from 2023 to 2028.

Kenyan cement industry utilization rates by 2028 are expected to be in the mid-60 percent range. Existing producers are already undergoing capacity expansions that are expected to result in the industry adding 2 million tons of cement grinding capacity by the end of 2024. Additional clinker production capacity is expected to contribute to reducing production costs as domestic clinker is around 25-30 percent cheaper than imports.

Cement prices are expected to moderate

The combination of increased capacity and stabilization of global energy prices is expected to have a positive impact on cement supply and consequently result in downward pressure on prices. The addition of domestic clinker capacity by a key existing player bodes well for cement demand but tougher times are expected for cement producers reliant on imported clinker.

Learn more about the Kenyan cement market, including cement volume trends in detail, trade flows, cement demand and production (historical and a five-year outlook), per capita consumption, and the competitive landscape, including company profiles, cement production facility details, including past and announced brownfield production increases and greenfield projects. Click here