Cement ex-works prices to increase on the back of elevated production costs in 1Q2023

• Cement ex-works prices are forecast to range from a decrease of more than 3 percent in Costa Rica to an increase of around 8 percent in Nigeria
• Sub-Saharan Africa's ex-works prices expected to rise on a quarterly basis
• Costa Rica to see the largest decline in ex-works cement prices

Greenwich (CT), USA, February 22, 2023 – Cement ex-works prices are forecast to range from a decrease of more than 3 percent in Costa Rica to an increase of around 8 percent in Nigeria, quarter-on-quarter, in the first three months of 2023, according to the 4Q2022 update of the CW Research's Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR).

"The pressure on domestic prices continues to be a function of higher production costs which have themselves been impacted by the sharp increase in energy prices, especially since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Continuing geopolitical, macroeconomic, and supply-chain challenges are expected to sustain high price levels in the short term", observed Lucas Pimenta, Junior Business Analyst at CW Group.

Nigeria is expected to lead an increase in global ex-works prices

In the first quarter of 2023, ex-works cement prices are forecast to see the largest increase in Nigeria, up by about 8 percent compared to December 2022 due to rising raw material prices. Furthermore, increased production and distribution costs are putting additional pressure on regional prices. Meanwhile, South Africa is expected to report an increase of around 6 percent, quarter-on-quarter

Europe to see a rise in ex-works prices during 1Q2023

In the first quarter of this year, CW Research expects the sharpest increase in ex-works prices in Eastern Europe and CIS to be witnessed in Russia and Poland, both by around 5 percent. This is followed by Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic, with increases of around 2 percent each caused by elevated fuel and natural gas prices, which have raised the costs of production and transportation.

In Western Europe, ex-works cement prices are also anticipated to rise in the first quarter of 2023, due to rising production costs, a shortage of raw materials, and delivery delays. Prices in France, Germany, and the UK are all forecasted to rise by an estimated 2 percent quarter over quarter. In the Med Basin, Italy is on track for a 4 percent rise, while Algeria is forecast to post a drop of over 1 percent.

Costa Rica is on track to see the largest decline in ex-works cement prices

In Costa Rica, a 3 percent quarter-on-quarter ex-works price decrease is expected by March 2023. In the US and Caribbean markets, ex-works prices are expected to increase by around 0.5 percent.

The Global Cement Trade Price Report is CW Research's benchmark price assessment for monthly gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated blast furnace slag prices and volumes. The 150+ page report, published on a quarterly basis, serves as the industry go-to source for monthly price data for over 70 individual markets worldwide, including multiple cornerstone data series: import, export, ex-works and market prices.

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